Analysis: How Karnataka 'castes' its votes

CNN-IBN-Deccan Herald–CSDS survey is one of the largest surveys of its kind that allows us to map the political sociology of voting in the state.
Caste has always been recognised as an important indicator of political choice and preference. In recent years it has emerged as a visible political identity and potent form of assertion of political presence.
Karnataka politics has often revolved around the intricacies of dominant caste politics. Though numerically less than one fourth of the states population, the Lingayat and Vokkaliga community have always accounted for more than half the legislators in the Assembly.
The present pre-poll survey indicates that this old understanding needs to be revised. In a quiet way and perhaps without any clear design, the Congress seems to be rebuilding a coalition of the bottom of the social pyramid and recovering what used to be the social base of the Congress in the earlier era.
Congress gains from below
While the upper social bloc is more or less evenly divided between the three major political players, the lower social bloc is clearly polarised in favour of the Congress. This is what appears to be giving the Congress a clear edge in this electoral race.

Robust lead for Cong among non-dominant communities

Congress BJP JD (S)

Upper social bloc 34 33 31

Upper caste 33 41 13

Vokkalinga 35 18 40

Lingayat 25 51 15

Lower social bloc 54 18 18

Lower OBC 38 29 20

Dalit 50 20 18

Adivasis 44 25 23

Muslims 65 11 14

Note: All figures in percent.



The BJP appears to have a sight edge over the Congress in the support it draws from the upper castes across the various political regions of the state.
This is not surprising given the fat that the traditional support base of the party has been from among the Upper Castes including those who have migrated to the state in recent decades.
The dominant peasant communities follow their traditional loyalties, but the regional differences prevent these from voting en-bloc for any party. The Vokkaliga community appears to be evenly divided between the Congress and the Janata Dal(S) with the BJP garnering the support of a little less than twenty per cent of the members of that community.

Courtesy:ibnleve.com

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Why Cong has upper hand in K'taka | Survey Methodology

The Congress appears to be leading the race to form the next government in Karnataka having managed an early edge ahead of the three-round polling for the state Assembly elections, an exclusive CNN-IBN-Deccan Herald opinion poll conducted by CSDS has suggested.
The poll finds the current mood of the Karnataka electorate favours Congress with the party expected to win 114 seats in the 224-seat Assembly, giving it a slender, but a clear majority. This means a gain of 49 seats for the Congress over the last elections held in 2004.
Karnataka voters were also asked who was there preferred chief ministerial candidate. The poll also tracked which way was the wind blowing in urban and rural Karnataka and across the six regions of the state. The issue of spiraling prices and will it affect the Congress's chances was also raised.
To discuss the findings of the poll CNN-IBN Editor-in-Chief Rajdeep Sardesai was joined by Yogendra Yadav, Political Analyst, CSDS; Diptosh Majumdar, CNN-IBN National Affairs Editor and Rajeeva L Karandikar, Executive Vice-President, Cranes Software.
Congress leader SM Krishna, Bharatiya Janata Party MP Ananth Kumar and MC Nanaiah of the Janata Dal (Secular) also joined the debate.
Yogendra Yadav set the ball rolling by clarifying that the opinion poll was a fairly comprehensive one.
"For a pre-election survey it is a very comprehensive one. It was conducted in 75 constituencies, which is every third constituency of the newly drawn boundaries. We have gone to 300 villages and urban centers and interviewed more than 5000 people. This is fairly comprehensive and completely representative of Karnataka," Yogendra claimed.
Diptosh Majumdar said the Karnataka elections would be fairly significant in the national context.
"The main poll issues being raised by the Opposition are terror and price rise. BJP is raising these issue and we will soon know if these will have bearing on the other elections that are coming up or not," Diptosh said.

Courtesy:ibnlive.com

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