First phase exit polls worry to BJP in Gujarat

The exit polls done for the first phase of elections in Gujarat seem to suggest that BJP will at worst win 13 seats fewer in this phase than it did last time.

With almost half the state having voted, it might seem that the decline is not enough to seriously threaten Narendra Modi's hold on power. After all, in 2002 it had won 35 seats more than it needed for a majority. Yet, there is enough in these polls to make BJP worry.

What the polls are predicting is a better performance by Congress so far than in the 2004 Lok Sabha polls. In those polls, the party had led in 92 assembly segments and BJP in 90. More importantly, Congress had led in 58 of the 95 seats that will poll on Sunday. If it is able to just repeat that performance, it will need no more than 34 seats in the first phase to get a majority.

Of the two exit polls, one gave 43 seats to Congress in the first phase, the other 37.
But how likely is it that Congress can repeat the 2004 performance in the second phase? If history is any indicator, the chances are quite high. In the five elections - Lok Sabha and state assembly - held in Gujarat in the last decade, Congress has almost always done much better in north and central Gujarat, the areas that will poll in the second phase, than it has in those that have already polled.

The only time that did not happen was in the 2002 assembly elections. But, those were elections held in the immediate aftermath of the riots, which were concentrated almost entirely in north and central Gujarat and hence led to sharp communal polarisation in those regions. As a result,
BJP won 73 of the 95 seats and Congress a mere 21

Courtesy:timesofindia.com
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